Is Gold really in an uptrend?
The above is the price chart of Gold in USD terms. Spot Gold prices had been in an uptrend, with the formation of higher highs and higher lows till the start of 2026. However, as soon as the price structure changed to lower highs and lower lows, the downtrend started in the yellow metal. I agree with the fact that prices will rise from the bottom, but I would like to get it confirmed before jumping to conclusions that the commodity has bottomed out. The price structure suggests that the recent rise in the commodity prices is just a bounce, and the prices can slide further.
The lower high of $4228 holds the key for me, and till the time prices are trading below $4228, I would not like to be a buyer of the commodity unless it makes a fresh low below $3870 and starts giving signs of reversal. The recent downfall looks incomplete based on my understanding of price structures, and the fall could further extend towards a 100% extension of the previous 3-wave correction, which comes around $3197.
I understand it's a bold call, but that's what I am looking at right now.
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ADITYA THUKRAL, PROPRIETOR, AT RESEARCH AND RISK MANAGERS
SEBI Registered Research Analyst INH000013794